The diplomatic crisis between Morocco and Tunisia risks taking a serious twist. “The inadmissible act of the Tunisian president, which breaks with years of positive neutrality in the country, makes you think twice about the nature of the partnership that we maintain. We are studying the possibility of suspending or revising the bilateral free trade agreement”, a diplomatic source told L’Economiste.
Such an initiative risks making the disagreement between the two countries last forever, and, above all, to be a new challenge for the Tunisian economy. Indeed, the trade balance between the two countries clearly leans in favor of Tunis. Indeed, by analyzing trade, the kingdom’s exports cover barely less than 50% of imports. For all products combined, Morocco is the largest receiving country in the Maghreb region for products from the Land of Jasmine (as Tunisia is nicknamed). For some products, Morocco is even occupying the first position. For example, Morocco has safeguarded its position as the leading buyer of Tunisian dates. Indeed, during the 2020/2021 agricultural season, Morocco imported more than 20,700 tons. Italy was the second largest country importing Tunisian dates with more than 6,700 tons during this agricultural season. It is followed by France (6,400 tonnes) and Germany (5,900 tonnes). “A suspension of the Free Trade Agreement (FTA) would have disastrous consequences on the Tunisian economy”, explains economist Mohamed Germouni, who adds: “Although Tunisia has other outlets, such as the countries of southern Europe or Libya, the fact is that European countries are already flooded with Israeli and Moroccan products of better quality, and Libya is bogged down in an internal conflict which does not make it a stable export market”. It must be said that before the political quarrel, a commercial quarrel is already taking place between the two countries. It concerns school notebooks. In this market, Morocco has established anti-dumping duties since 2018 which were challenged by Tunisia at the World Trade Organization (WTO). An analysis of Tunisian notebook exports has highlighted that the Moroccan market represents more than 80% of the total volume of Tunisian notebook exports. It is therefore striking to note that the average prices of Tunisian notebook exports to Morocco during the period considered are systematically the lowest, even in comparison with other markets in sub-Saharan Africa. Thus, there is no doubt that the Moroccan market is the victim of a strategy of targeted dumping on the part of Tunisian exporters aimed at evicting what remains of the national industry. In conclusion, all the analysts confirm that a suspension of the FTA would be more beneficial to Morocco and very harmful to Tunisia. This de facto situation has prompted Morocco to draw up a list of 18 categories of products that would be revised, and this, within the framework of the FTA with Tunisia. A measure that took Tunisian operators by surprise, who saw it as an “unjustified act”. Indeed, a circular from the Moroccan Customs and Indirect Tax Administration (ADII), which relates to the updating of the Moroccan customs tariff of import duties from Tunisia, has been interpreted as a revision of the FTA between the two countries, and of the Agadir Agreement. These changes had no impact on preferential treatment under the bilateral free trade agreement. Indeed, it should be recalled, on the other hand, that Tunisia’s preferential trade with Morocco is also governed by the agreement establishing the Greater Arab Free Trade Area (Arab League) and the Agadir Agreement, which do not introduce any negative list of products traded between their member countries.
Abdessamad NAIMI
