Despite the challenges facing the agricultural sector, Morocco’s economy is expected to accelerate in 2025, according to a recent economic report by BMI-Fitch Solutions, titled «Morocco’s Economy Will Accelerate In 2025, Despite Headwinds From Ailing Agricultural Sector.» However, there has been a slight adjustment compared to previous ratings.
Real GDP growth projections have been revised downward, from 5.6% to 5% this year, compared to 3.4% in 2024. Economists now anticipate below-average agricultural output for the year. Nevertheless, they remain optimistic due to the strong performance of the non-agricultural economy. By comparison, BMI-Fitch Solutions projects the highest growth rate. Other international and national institutions (HCP, BAM, IMF, World Bank, AfDB) estimate an average growth rate of around 3.8% to 3.9%. According to BMI-Fitch Solutions, investment will remain a crucial driver of Morocco’s economic growth, supported by ongoing interest rate cuts and strong inflows of foreign direct investment (FDI). Bank Al Maghrib’s monetary policy is expected to remain accommodative in 2025. Another 25-basis-point rate cut is anticipated this year, following a 50-basis-point reduction in 2024, bringing the benchmark interest rate down to 2.25% by year-end. This will further stimulate private investment by lowering borrowing costs. Average bank lending rates stood at 5.1% in Q4 2024, the lowest level since Q1 2023. This environment will help drive FDI inflows, particularly in the automotive, aerospace, and renewable energy sectors.
Morocco’s strategic location, business-friendly environment, and infrastructure investments—especially in preparation for the 2030 FIFA World Cup, co-hosted with Spain and Portugal—will continue to attract significant foreign capital inflows. Net FDI increased by 55.4% year-over-year in 2024, reflecting growing investor confidence. According to BMI-Fitch Solutions’ forecasts, private consumption will remain relatively strong in 2025, driven by three key factors: Expansionary fiscal policy: The government’s stimulus measures will boost household spending, particularly through an 11.5% increase in personnel expenditures, including public sector salaries.
Moderate inflation: Inflation is expected to average 1.6% in 2025, preserving consumers’ purchasing power and ensuring that private consumption remains a key pillar of economic growth. Stable remittance growth: Given stronger economic growth in Europe—where over 80% of Moroccans abroad reside—remittance inflows are expected to remain steady.
Fatim-Zahra TOHRY
